Trinbagonians take great pride in the economic achievements of their country. According to the results of the survey “What Independence Means to You”, published in August issue of the T&T Review- 78 per cent of those surveyed were proud or very proud of our economic achievements.  One gets the distinct impression that those who disagreed felt that we should have accomplished more over the first fifty years. But that is water under the bridge. The pertinent question now is would we be able to say the same at the end of the century.  Given life expectancy in Trinidad and Tobago is 68.5 and 74.5 years for males and females respectively, very few who saw the birth of this nation in 1962, will be around for its 100th anniversary.  It is tempting to say, why bother? Nevertheless, we have a responsibility, all of us, to ensure that we work towards the creation of a society and economy of which we are justifiably proud. A society based on merit, equity and social justice, supported by a sustainable economy pregnant with dynamic growth opportunities. A society in which, among other things, good governance, transparency and accountability is the norm; where the national watchwords – discipline production and tolerance and the ideals of the national anthem – every creed and race find an equal place are embraced as our personal values; where a relevant dynamic and exciting education system nurtures patriotism, innovation and entrepreneurship; and nepotism and corruption are eliminated.

 

Looking ahead can be uncomfortable. Fear of facing the future often leads us to make the deliberate choice of “crossing that bridge when we get there”. Our mistrust of the future makes it hard to give up the past. We prefer to enjoy the moment, remain in our comfort zone and allow the future to take its course.  At all levels of this society, national, corporate and personal, planning is not generally regarded as an important or meaningful process. It is an unfortunate national trait. However as painful as it may be, looking ahead allows us the opportunity to avoid the very future that we fear by dedicating efforts and resources towards the one that we crave. In the words of Gandhi “the future depends on what you do today”.   Our 50th anniversary provides an appropriate moment not only for celebrating and stocktaking but more importantly for looking at what might lie ahead.  This 50th anniversary has featured more than its fair share of celebrations. Analysts and commentators on from every quarter have given views on our achievements and our failings.    Quite naturally, far less emphasis seems to be placed on the future.  In the corporate world scenarios are often used to inform business strategy in an environment of uncertainty.    This technique can be applied to shape our thinking about possible futures and to stimulate action at a personal, corporate and national level. Three probable scenarios are presented below for consideration. – The Silver –lining; the Whirlpool and the End Game. These scenarios are based on a combination of actions and events. I offer no strategy for achieving or avoiding any particular scenario but I invite all patriotic citizens to make their choice of future and commit to act in a manner consistent with realizing that dream.

 

Scenario 1: The End Game

In 2062, the Trinidad and Tobago society and economy is barely recognizable from the one that existed in 2012.   The country has come to this sorry state because of a combination of both controllable and uncontrollable events coupled with inappropriate economic and social policies.  The fall was precipitated by adverse economic trends and events.   The once dynamic energy sector- the engine of economic growth has weakened considerably. Crude oil production has fallen to less than 30 thousand barrels per day.  In the context of a very limited gas reserves base, Trinidad and Tobago’s LNG industry shut down around 2032, while imports from Venezuela keep the petrochemical business alive. However, the industry is no longer a cash cow.  In the absence of high inflows of capital, foreign exchange and Government revenues the country’s fiscal   and external balance deteriorates.  Fiscal deficits are financed by foreign and local borrowing. But Government’s spending capacity is severely constrained, resulting in severe cuts in both social and capital spending. Corrective action on the Balance of Payments takes the form of successive devaluations. But this only serves to increase capital flight as citizens try to protect their assets. The country has failed to accomplish economic transformation. The manufacturing sector had long been displaced by trading.  Former industrial estates had become acres of warehousing space providing storage for imports.   The tourism trust is still born, essentially overtaken by competition Unemployment grows to over 25 per cent. Rising unemployment and cuts in social spending, a booming illegal drug trade    drive increased criminal activity and the denigration of law and order.  Faced with a dismal future, in excess of 80 percent of young University graduates migrate in search of new and meaningful job opportunities.  Tensions between Trinidad and Tobago over mineral rights threaten the break-up of the unitary state.

 

Scenario 2: Sliver- Lining

 In 2062, Trinidad and Tobago is among the world’s most admired countries. A combination of prudent and enlightened management and good fortune provided the country with renewed opportunity for growth and transformation.   New political leaders brought fresh vision and purpose to the national independence mission.  The discovery of new hydrocarbon resources once again, provided the wealth to finance transformation.  Oil and gas contribute only 20 per cent of GDP and 40 per cent of export earnings.  New economic sectors based mainly on information technology, indigenous manufacturing and services including cultural industries, education, tourism, characterise a much more balanced economy.   A major contributor to our success was the complete revamp of the education system creating opportunities for all according to   their interest capability and pace of development. Our world class education system is makes maximum use of new technologies while remaining rooted in the Caribbean realities.   The research efforts in all spheres are aimed at providing solutions to real Caribbean challenges.   This engenders a wave of innovation and new productive capacity financed by   people’s institutions like credit unions and cooperatives. A meritorious society finally emerges as nepotism and cronyism   are stamped out partly through civil action of   a more discerning and vigilant citizenry.   The expanding economy coupled with revamped training and education    leads to increased job creation   and conversely less criminal activity.  In general Trinidad and Tobago is the place to be.

 

Scenario 3: Whirlpool-

Trinidad and Tobago in 2062 is seemingly standing still. More discoveries of oil and gas, allow Governments to continue the old cycle of wealth transfer through subsidies, transfers, politically driven policy decisions. In an environment of sustained energy wealth, economy continues to experience temporary periods of boom and bust.  Our penchant for imports grows and with it, a persistent weakening of the exchange rate.   Old habits endure.  Government changes with frequency as the electorate uses its most potent weapon to root out persistent corruption, nepotism and tribalism.  Inevitable the society becomes more divided; making prospects for a social cohesion seem a distant dream.

 

 Three possibly scenarios are presented for your consideration. Make your choice and act accordingly.